Guide · 5 min read

Fixture difficulty ratings: what they tell you and what they don't

The coloured boxes beside every fixture are the most-used number in FPL after price. They're useful, but they're a rough guide rather than a forecast, and it's worth knowing exactly how rough.

What the rating is

The game gives every fixture two ratings from 1 to 5, one for each side, describing how hard that match is for that team. A 2 is a kind fixture, a 5 is the hardest in the league. The two sides of one match usually get different numbers: a mid-table side at home to the champions might face a 5, while the champions face a 2.

The ratings are set by the game, mostly from the strength of the opponent, and they're adjusted during the season. They don't know who's injured, who's in form this month, or which manager is rotating before a European tie.

What it has actually predicted this season

Here's what happened in the first fifty Premier League matches of 2026/27, grouped by the difficulty each side faced:

• Sides facing a 2 scored 1.50 goals a game on average and kept a clean sheet in 59% of their matches.
• Sides facing a 3 scored 1.48 goals and kept a clean sheet 24% of the time.
• Sides facing a 4 scored 1.26 goals and kept a clean sheet 22% of the time.
• Sides facing a 5 scored 1.00 goals, in only five matches, and kept no clean sheets.

Two things stand out. The rating tracks goals scored only loosely: a side facing a 3 scored almost exactly as many as one facing a 2. But it tracks clean sheets strongly: a 2 produced a clean sheet more than twice as often as a 3. Fifty matches is a small sample and these figures will move, but the pattern is a familiar one. Easy fixtures are worth most to defenders and goalkeepers.

Home and away

Over the same fifty matches, home sides scored 1.52 goals a game and away sides 1.30. The rating already leans towards the home side, so don't count home advantage twice: a home fixture rated 3 isn't a 2 in disguise.

How to use it

Look at runs, not single weeks. One kind fixture is a coin that lands a little more often on the right side. Four or five in a row is where the rating earns its keep, because the swings even out over a run and the average difference shows through. That's why the game's fixture tickers show several weeks at once.

Use it for defenders first. A clean sheet is worth 4 points to a defender or goalkeeper, and it's the outcome the rating predicts best. For attackers, the player's own form and minutes usually matter more than the opponent.

Don't sell a great player for a fixture. The players who score most do it against everyone. Moving a premium forward out for three tough games, at a hit, to bring him back afterwards at another hit, costs 8 points before either move has done anything.

Watch for blanks and doubles. A team with no fixture in a gameweek scores nothing, whatever the rating says about the week after. The chip guides cover how to plan for those weeks.

Where FPL Rivals uses it

The fixture ratings feed a few things on the site. The Fixtures tab on My Team shows each of your players' next runs. The trading cards use the rating too: a goal against a side your player's club rates as a 4 earns the Upset Strike card, and against a 5, the Giant Killer. And every club page lists that side's upcoming fixtures with their ratings.

For the arithmetic that decides whether a fixture-driven transfer is worth a hit, read Free transfers, rolling them, and when a hit pays for itself.